“Our best years were recession years. If you wait for the recovery, it’s
too late.”- Charlie Munger (speaking about Berkshire Hathaway)
Market Numbers, October 10, 2010
Dow: 11,006.48
Nasdaq: 2,401.91
S&P 500: 1,165.15
10-Yr. Bond: 2.381%
David’ Korn’s Newsletter Equity Investment Portfolio
This portfolio is based on an asset allocation consistently entirely of
equities (when fully invested). It does not include fixed income (i.e.
bonds) which would be more appropriate for some investors — especially
those approaching or in retirement. If you are interested in a retirement
portfolio, consider my other newsletter, The Retirement Advisor at
http://www.theretirementadvisor.net/
25% Vipers (Ticker: VTI) Cost Basis: $54.12 (Current Price: $59.58)
27% S&P 500 Index Depository Receipts (Ticker: SPY) Cost Basis: $103.44
(Current Price: $116.54)
15% Spiders Select Technology (Ticker: XLK) Cost Basis $19.44 (Current
Price: $23.31)
5% iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund (Ticker: EWJ) Cost Basis $9.80 (Current
Price: $10.23)
2% ProFunds Rising Rates Opportunity Inverse Fund (RRPIX) Cost Basis: $18.83
(Current price: $11.24)
2% Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund (Ticker: VT) Cost Basis: $48.12
(Current price: $46.06)
5% Position in Diamonds (DIA) Cost Basis: $106.31 (Current price: $110.16)
19% SPY (established based on May 26th close using opening price May 27th)
(Ticker: SPY) Cost Basis: $109.19 (Current Price: $116.54)
David Korn’s Weekly Stock Market Commentary:
For the week, the Dow gained 1.6%, the S&P 500 gained 1.6% and the NASDAQ
declined 1.3%. Year-to-date, excluding cash dividends, all of the indices are in the
black. Calendar year-to-date, the Dow is up 5.5%, the S&P 500 is up 4.5% and the
NASDAQ is up 5.9%.
The benchmark S&P 500 closed the week out at 1,165.15, rallying to a
six-month high. We are approaching the top of the trading range. Let’s
crunch the numbers as to how far we are from the bull market highs recorded
near the end of April.
Stock Market Decline as Measured From Bull Market Highs
(Based on Friday’s closing prices)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Closing High on April 26, 2010: 11,205.03
Close on Friday, Oct. 9, 2010: 11,006.48
Percentage Decrease from Closing High to Present: 1.78%
S&P 500 INDEX
Closing High on April 23, 2010: 1,217.28
Close on Friday, Oct. 9, 2010: 1,165.15
Percentage Decrease from Closing High to Present: 4.29%
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Closing High on April 23, 2010: 2,530.15
Close on Friday, Oct. 9, 2010: 2,401.91
Percentage Decrease from Closing High to Present: 5.03%
The Dow continues to show relative-strength vis-à-vis the other indices,
only down 1.78% from its peak. The S&P 500 is down 4.29% and the NASDAQ
just a tiny bit more down 5.03%. As we approach the thick of the political
election season, stocks have seen broad based buying. Bond yields certainly
don’t provide much of an alternative to equities with the 10-year Treasury
only yielding 2.38%.
Meanwhile, let’s see how the sentiment picture looks in the wake of this
rally.
SENTIMENT
Investors Intelligence: According to the latest data, the number of bullish
advisors as interpreted by Investors Intelligence increased from 43.3% last
week to 45.6% this week. This was the sixth consecutive week that the
percentage of professional advisors increased in bullishness. The
percentage of bears increased this week from 27.9% to 28.3%. Using the
formula, Bulls/(Bulls + Bears), the sentiment ratio is 61.70%. The
four-week moving average is 58.81%.
AAII: According to the latest poll conducted by the American Association of
Individual Investors, 49.03% are bullish and 27.74% are bearish and 23.34%
are neutral on the market. Using the formula [(bulls)/(bulls + bears)], the
sentiment ratio is 63.86%. The rally has prompted the percentage of bulls
in this survey to be above 40% for five consecutive weeks. According to
Charles Rotblut of AAII,
“Individual investors continue to react positively
to this fall’s global rise in stock prices, as can be seen in the survey
results. The 21.3 point spread between bullish and bearish sentiment
suggests that optimism remains below levels that would be considered
excessive, however. (The bull-bear spread has topped 40 points nearly 70
times since 1987.) This suggests that though many individual investors are
hopeful, concerns about the economy, interest rates and the federal deficit
have not faded into the background.”
That quote was obtained in an article
about latest AAII sentiment survey at this url:
CBOE Put/Call Ratio. The put/call ratio closed Friday at 0.85. The 10-day
moving average is 0.87 and the 21-day moving average is 0.90.
More bullishness in the sentiment data, no doubt. Can’t say we are at
dangerous levels yet, but we are a far cry from seeing any major fear
readings.
I wasn’t scheduled to cover Moneytalk this weekend, but Bob Brinker showed
up to host Moneytalk and he went over the employment data which I wanted to
cover as well. So on with the show.
TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION WATCH
Editorial Comment (“EC”): Here is how the major market indexes have
performed (excluding dividends) since Bob Brinker’s timing model turned
“favorable” based on the S&P 500 Index’s close on March 10, 2003, and he
recommended investors redeploy their cash reserves into a fully invested
position by bulletin issued at 2:00 a.m. on March 11, 2003:
S&P 500 Index: 44.29%
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Up 45.43%
NASDAQ Composite: Up 87.89%
EMPLOYMENT REPORT
Brinker Comment: On Friday, we received the September employment report
which is the final jobs report we will get before the November elections.
Private payrolls added 64,000 jobs last month; August was revised to 93,000
jobs and July¹s data was revised to 117,000. If you average the last three
months, you get 91,000 new private per month. This excludes the census
workers and excludes the government jobs data in general.
The $787 billion stimulus bill allowed states and municipalities to retain
many workers, but with the money being used up they are forced to let
workers go. Local governments are strained for cash with reduced tax
collections. In September, we saw the fastest rate of decline in local
government workforce in three decades! Local governments slashed 79,000 and
state governments slashed 7,000 jobs. Many teaching and education-related
jobs have been lost. States such as California that are strapped for cash
have been cutting back in education, health care and social services. Bob
said more government job losses are likely with government tax revenues
under pressure.
The Federal Reserve continues to stimulate the economy using any monetary
tool they can find. While private payrolls have grown, they haven’t grown
in the range of 100,000-150,000 new jobs we need. The unemployment rate is
9.6% and the under-unemployment rate is growing at 17.1%. We have close to
15 million people who are out of work. We need more jobs just to keep the
employment rate from falling, but we can’t even get that.
EC: The folks at Chartoftheday compared job losses following the beginning
of the current economic recession and the average recession from 1954-2000.
The chart shows that the current jobs recovery is “much weaker than the
average jobs recovery that follows the end of a recession” but that the
“current jobs recovery is following a path that is very similar to what
occurred following the recession of 2001.”
A picture is worth a thousand editorial comments, so see for yourself at this url:
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20101008.htm?T
Brinker Comment: The demographics of unemployment are broken down as
follows: white unemployment is 8.7%; black unemployment is 16.1%; Hispanic
unemployment is 12.4%; Asian unemployment is 6.4%. The biggest unemployed
group is usually teenagers and that is no exception this month, coming in
26%.
When you look at unemployment by education, the numbers underscore the value
of education. Those with a bachelor’s degree or higher have an unemployment
rate of 4.4%; some college have a rate of 9.1%; high school diploma 10%
which is about the national average; less than high school diploma 15.4% –
the highest of any education category. The best money you will ever spend
is on education. Look at the disparity between the 4.4% for those with a
college degree and the national average of 9.6%. Education is clearly
important to your employment opportunities. Bob noted that the percentage
of people in the United States that have a college degree is about 25% and
over the years it hasn¹t deviated from that percentage too much.
Brinker Comment: Hours worked per week haven¹t made much headway this last
six months. Hourly wages are also flat coming in at $22.67 per hour.
Obviously, a high rate of unemployment is not conducive to wage growth.
When you look at the overall employment report, you see a picture that is
lack-luster. There were a few bright spots in certain sectors such as food
services and drinking establishments. Perhaps a few people are out drinking
to forget about the jobs market. Unemployment is available for 99 weeks in
some instances.
EC: We need to add about 1.2 million jobs a year in our country just to
accommodate all of the people that grow up and enter the labor force and we
have lost millions of jobs in the last couple of years so we have a lot of
catching up to do. The report this week was a start hopefully of better
fundamentals. The question is whether it is going to be sustainable. Here
is a link to the jobs report for March:
H-1B VISA
Caller: This caller said we are allowing between 75,000-100,000 guest
workers into our country right now which doesn¹t seem to make sense given we
have such high employment in our country. The caller said he thinks 15% of
the high tech workers are on a H1-B. visa. Bob said it is supposed to be
used for high skilled workers who are qualified for critical technology and
scientific jobs to allow companies to hire them on a temporary basis to make
those companies them more competitive. Bob said the main opposition he has
seen to the H1-B has been from the unions. Bob said he is not opposed to
the H-1B program that allows non-Americans to come here on a temporary
basis. The caller said that the government¹s web site says a foreign worker
can be hired even in the place of an American citizen. Bob said he doesn¹t
think it should be a case where you hire someone outside of the country for
which we have people in our country that are qualified.
EC: Information about Temporary Workers from the government is at this url:
http://tinyurl.com/yfaxpfa
TIPS/INFLATION
Caller: What is your opinion of the steepness of the yield curve and that
TIPS yields are fairly low. Bob said there is no question the TIPS yields
are low ‹ actually, extremely low. The base rate on the 10-year TIPS is
just 40 basis points! If you take that and subtract that from the nominal
year of the 10-year Treasury of 2.4% that gives you an implied inflation
rate of 2.0%. The Treasury market is telling you that the expectation for
inflation for the next decade is just 2.0%. If you look at the thirty-year,
the implied rate of inflation is 2.75% over that time frame. Bob noted that
the market in TIPS does not attempt to forecast a higher or lower rate of
inflation. The market in TIPS attempts to identify the expected rate of
inflation. If you get into a situation where rates go up, you should expect
the TIPS base rates to go up as well. However, the net asset value of those
securities or a fund of those securities will go down if that happens.
That’s just the way it works in the bond market.
EC: There was new data out this Friday when the Economic Cycle Research
Institute (ECRI) announced that its U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) rose
to 98.0 in September from 97.3 in August. According to Lakshman Achuthan,
managing director of ECRI, “U.S. inflation pressures are still restrained,
but we are starting to creep up.” The USFIG’s annualized growth rate,
which smooths out monthly fluctuations, fell to 1.0%.
Read more at this URL:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6972X220101008
YIELD CURVE
Caller: Are you worried that we have a positive yield curve? Bob said we
want a positive yield curve because that is conducive to economic growth.
Right now, we have slow economic growth, but at least it is positive.
EC: Keep track of the yield curve at this url:
http://tinyurl.com/79u6u
PAY OFF MORTGAGE
Caller: This 73-year old caller has 20 years to go on a 30-year mortgage
with a rate of 5.75%. He plans to stay there the rest of his life and wants
to know if he should pay it off now. He has $100,000 in cash which would be
enough to pay off the mortgage. Bob said if you pay off the mortgage you
will save the 5.75% which is above the market-rate for interest and you
can’t argue with the economics of paying it off. The issue is whether you
will have enough liquidity and have some cash reserves to take care of your
needs and deal with emergencies.
GNMA QUESTIONS
Caller: This caller has some Vanguard GNMA funds and is wondering whether
all of the foreclosure rates across the country will negatively impact them.
Bob said he recommended GNMA many years ago because they have a direct
Treasury guarantee that stands behind the repayment of principle and
interest so there is no credit concerns with GNMAs. You always have
interest rate concern with any bond fund. As mortgage rates have come down,
the net asset value of GNMAs has gone up. The Vanguard GNMA fund is trading
at or close to its all-time high and has been above $11.00 per share
recently for the first time in its history.
Caller: Is there any limit to the amount of GNMAs you can hold? Bob said
he hasn¹t heard anything like that and there are GNMA funds that have
billions in GNMAs.
Caller: This caller has owned the Vanguard GNMA fund in an IRA for many
years and he is taking Bob¹s advice to set a mental stop loss on the fund.
Bob cautioned that his advice on the mental stop loss is for those who care
about fluctuations in net asset value. For those who plan to hold the GNMAs
for the long term, and are willing to accept the inevitable fluctuations in
net asset value, the stop loss advice is not for them.
Caller: The caller said he got the latest fund profile in the Vanguard GNMA
fund and noticed that it held other mortgage-backed securities, including
Fannie Mae, etc. Bob said whatever other holdings there are, they would be
relatively tiny and that the holdings in that fund are overwhelmingly in
AAA-rated GNMAs. Bob said you could check check Vanguard¹s web site, as he
has done many times, and get the specific holdings in that fund.
EC: This link brings you the web page that has a link to the holdings in
the Vanguard GNMA Fund:
http://tinyurl.com/2en3weh
SELL THE FARM?
Caller: This guy lives in Arizona and his the bulk of his net worth
invested in a farm in northern Wisconsin worth about $1.6 million which
produces about $28,000 each year. He owns it free and clear but he is
disabled and has been since 1969. The wife wants to sell the firm and pay
off their debts of about $318,000. The caller said the good thing about
owning it is that he can live on the land and there are always farmers who
want to rent it and it is high quality property. The annual tax on the
property is minimal, only about $1200 a year. Bob said the yield he is
getting is only about 1.6% on the asset value. Bob said if it were him, he
would sell the property, especially given that he had most of his net worth
tied up in it and because it is not really generating a high return. The
caller asked Bob if he should wait for the farm to recover its value. A few
years back, the farm was selling for $10,000 an acre, now it is selling for
$7,000 an acre. Bob said if you wanted to wait, that would simply be
speculating on the future value. Bob reiterated that if it were him under
this scenario, he would sell it now.
EC: Here is an article that explores in pretty significant detail the case
for investing in farmland at this juncture:
http://tinyurl.com/luyg6o
CLOSED-END FUND
Caller: What do you think of closed-end funds being traded on the NYSE.
The p/e ratio seems to be low and the dividends seem to be high. The caller
has never purchased funds like this before and wanted to know what kind of
fees would be associated. Bob said there are costs associated with closed
end funds which are funds that have a certain amount of money when the fund
goes public and the only the thing that changes that value is expenses or
total return of price change plus any dividends or interest. Closed-end
funds trade very differently than a typical open ended fund. A closed-end
fund trades purely on supply/demand which correlates to the net asset value;
however, it is strictly supply and demand so frequently you will see that
these closed-end funds will trade at a discount to the net asset value. You
have to pay a commission when you trade on the NYSE, although in this day
and age the commissions are close to zero and in some cases you can pay no
commission. You have to pay the expense ratio of the fund to own the fund
each year. The caller asked how some of these closed-end funds can be
paying such generous dividend yields. Bob said the answer in many cases is
leverage. Bob said if you are doing your homework you might occasionally
find a closed-end fund with good value. But as a general rule, he prefers
open-ended mutual funds that trade at their net asset value on a daily
basis.
EC: A closed-end fund issues a fixed number of shares to raise capital,
just like an initial public offering. After the initial offering, shares
trade on an exchange and supply and demand determines the price of the
closed-end fund. If you want more information on the differences and
attributes of closed end vs. open end mutual funds, I recommend this web
site:
http://tinyurl.com/aav4g
SPAC
Caller: This caller had a question about Special Purpose Acquisition
Companies (SPAC) which seemed to be a way to get around the traditional IPO
market. Where these companies included in the Total Stock Market Index
Fund? Bob said the Total Stock Market Index has trillions in market
capitalization. Bob said if anything made its way into the index, it would
probably be such a minuscule part of the Index it wouldn’t amount to much.
EC: Learn more about SPACs if you want to at this url:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special-purpose_acquisition_company
DON’T EXPECT COLA
Brinker Comment: Bob said this coming week we should hear an official word
from social security as to whether there will be a cost of living adjustment
(COLA) for next year. There are more than 50 million individuals receiving
social security and so it impacts a lot of people. Bob said he expects no
change because the rate of inflation through the end of August is just 1.1%.
That would be below the threshold for a cost of living change. Assuming
there is no COLA adjustment, this will be only the second time since 1975
that we will see no change in the COLA (the first being this year).
EC: I agree with Bob. Don’t expect any COLA absent some kind of
Congressional action. The average Social Security benefit is about $1,072 a
month. Social Security recipients got a one-time bonus payment of $250 in
spring 2009 as part of the recovery package. There was a move in Congress
for another one last fall, but it didn’t get out of the Senate.
STOCK MARKET
Brinker Comment: The S&P 500 is trading at 1165 and has a total year-to-date
return of 6.0% which includes the cash dividend. The Wilshire 500 has done
even better with a total return of 7.0%. The NASDAQ-100 which trades under
the symbol QQQQ has a year-to-date return of 8.9%.
Bob said he regards the current market environment as the second phase of a
cyclical bull market. The first phase took us from spring 2009 to spring of
2010 when the S&P 500 added 80% in price alone (82% when you add in
dividends). Then we had a correction which took the market down 16% in
July. Bob said he had upgraded the market for attractive for purchase into
the correction when the S&P 500 closed at 1030 on June 30th. The market is
now in its second phase of the cyclical bull market. Last year, the stock
market had a terrific year coming off of the 2008 debacle. As of now, we
have additional gains this year. As we move forward, Bob said if he is
correct, we will add to those gains.
EC: Bob seems to be getting more and more confident on the stock market.
Note that we are getting close to that upper-end of the trading range where
I think you will see a lot of resistance and selling from investors who
don’t want to go on another roller coaster ride and from those who may be
worried about potential changes in tax policy next year.
NO DEPRESSION FORECAST
Caller: This caller said he has heard that the stock market is showing
parallels to what happened in the Great Depression and wanted to know what
Bob thought about those forecasts. Bob said he is not predicting another
depression; nor is he even in the camp of predicting a double-dip recession.
Bob gave three specific examples of differences between what happened in
2008 which was a serious recession versus what happened in the 1930s which
was a depression. First, in the 1930s, there was no FDIC insurance
protection like there is today. Families lost their life savings in
thousands of banks that failed. Second, the Federal Reserve made a
disastrous mistake by tightening monetary policy and reducing the amount of
money in circulation and credit available. Third, a wave of protectionism
came over the country and Congress passed legislation which created a trade
war by placing tariffs on imports and causing other countries to do the
same. Those three things paved the way for economic disaster.
EC: Harry Dent, the self-styled “economic futurist” is out there making
predictions of a coming great depression. Check out this article, however,
that takes his prediction to task. A link to Dent’s article is at the end.
Entitled, Harry Dent: Bold Predictions of the Great Depression Ahead you
can find it at this url:
http://tinyurl.com/35qhacx
INDIVIDUAL STOCKS
Caller: This caller owns some stocks that have lost anywhere from 30-60% of
their value. How should she decide whether to hold or sell. Bob said it is
shame to hear the stocks are down that much because even today, the S&P 500
is only 25% below its all-time high and when you add in the cash dividends,
it is only down about 20%. Bob suggested she go to a reference library and
look for a subscription to the Value Line Investment Survey which carries
analysis of over a thousand stocks. That will give you at least one
analyst¹s opinion on the companies which you can use as a starting point to
determine what you will do going forward.
EC: Here is a link to the Value Line Investment Survey’s web site:
http://www.valueline.com/
MODEL PORTFOLIO QUESTION
Caller: This caller has followed most, but not all, of the recommended
holdings in Bob¹s Model Portfolio II, and wanted to know what approach he
should take for adopting all of the recommended positions. Bob said he
would make the moves immediately. Bob said when he makes recommendations,
whether rightly or wrongly, he does so because he has strong feelings about
them. For that reason, he would simply implement the changes following the
percentages recommended in the newsletter. Bob said that Portfolio II is
having a great year and is outperforming the S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000 just
as it did in 2009 when it had huge gains.
EC: Bob’s Model Portfolio II is fully invested in the stock market. In
fact, it has been fully invested since March 2003 without any market timing
changes since then impacting its holdings.
REVERSE MORTGAGES
Brinker Comment: If you are considering a reverse mortgage, you should be
careful because it is a mine field. Bob suggested listeners visit the the
National Center for Home Equity Conversion web site which has good honest
information about reverse mortgages.
EC: Here is a link to that web site:
http://reverse.org/
CREDIT COUNSELING
Brinker Comment: There are a lot of people having financial difficulties
these days. And there are a lot of solicitations about “fixing” your
credit, some of which are from shady organizations. Bob suggested the
National Foundation for Credit Counseling. Bob noted that all over the
country, credit card companies are reducing the lines of credit available to
consumers. If your credit line is cut your credit score will probably go
down since 30% of your credit score is based on the amount of credit line in
use.
EC: Here is a link to the web site of the National Foundation for Credit
Counseling:
http://nfcc.org/
BOND INVESTING
Caller: This caller has been reluctant to invest new money in bonds in
recent years because of the view that bond yields are at generational lows.
His bond portfolio consists mainly of emerging market and junk bonds with
the assumption that as the economy improves their will be credit upgrades
will take some of the sting out of rising rates. So far, he has done well
with this strategy and with yields around 6% and is wondering whether he
should just go with high dividend yielding stocks. Bob said he would
develop mental stop losses for his bond portfolio positions if he is
concerned about the net asset value risk. The caller asked Bob for
suggestions to do with the proceeds once the stop loss was triggered. Bob
said moving from the bond market to the stock market is apples and oranges
and a big asset allocation change. If you view the money as part of your
fixed-income holdings, Bob suggested a ladder of FDIC-insured CDs.
EC: Check out this article from the WSJ entitled, As Bond Market Rallies
On, Risks Lurk Beneath Surface at this url:
http://tinyurl.com/29o5pbt
MONEYTALK GUEST
Bob had on John Morris, co-author of the book, King of Capital: The
Remarkable Rise, Fall and Rise Again of Steve Schwarzman and Blackstone.
The book chronicles the career of Stephen Schwarzman, co-founder of the
Blackstone Group, the private-equity and financial advisory firm. The
interview wasn’t worth summarizing; however, the Wall Street Journal Blog
has an excerpt of the book and some more information at this url:
http://tinyurl.com/23vha5d
And if you are interested in the book, here is a link to its profile on
Barnes & Noble’s web site:
http://tinyurl.com/276u7un
THIS WEEK
Brinker Comment: The most important numbers this week come out on Friday
which will be the retail sales number for September and are expected to be
up 0.4%. In a sluggish economy, that would be a number that would make
sense. We also get inflation news. We get the Producer Price Index and
Consumer Price Index report for the month of September reported on Thursday
and Friday, respectively. Bob said the month-on-month change in the CPI is
expected to be about 0.2%. Inflation has been dead in the water because of
a number of factors, not the least of which is the slow growing economy.
Also this Friday, we get the University of Michigan confidence index which
is expected to show a slight increase.
EC: This link brings you to the full economic calendar:
http://tinyurl.com/3xvs9y9
FINAL THOUGHTS FROM DAVID KORN: Have a great week! – David
GLOBEX FUTURES PRICES: Check out this link to try and gauge how the United
States’ stock market will open tomorrow morning. Remember though, the
market sometimes opens very differently than the futures indicate:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html
DISCLAIMER: This e-mail is neither sanctioned by, nor written under the
auspices of ABC Radio Networks, Moneytalk or Bob Brinker. This e-mail is
not a substitute for listening to Moneytalk, it is only my interpretation
and commentary of some of what is discussed on Moneytalk, along with
additional educational information that I include, editorial comments about
the market and helpful financial links. I also provide my own stock market
commentary to subscribers as part of my service and give them access to my
web site, http://www.BeginInvesting.com. If you want to know what was said
verbatim on Moneytalk, listen to the show live or subscribe to “Moneytalk on
Demand” which allows you to listen to the show in case you missed it live.
The web site, bobbrinker.com has all the links to the ABC Radio Network
stations that broadcast the show live. The information contained in this
newsletter is not intended to constitute financial advice and is not a
recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security. This
newsletter is strictly informational and educational and is not to be
construed as any kind of financial advice, investment advice or legal
advice. Copyright David Korn, L.L.C. 2010.